The Joplin Globe, Joplin, MO


July 1, 2013

Midwest economy: June state-by-state glance

OMAHA, Neb. — The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.  

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.  

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.  

Here are the state-by-state results for June:  

Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas dipped to 52.6 from 55.1 in May. The index includes new orders at 46.5, production or sales at 44.7, delivery lead time at 50.8, inventories at 66.7, and employment at 54.1. “Business expansion for durable goods producers remains strong and has offset weakness among nondurable goods producers.  Even as construction activity has stabilized, the industry has yet to recapture job losses from the national recession with industry jobs down 17 percent from 2007,” Goss said.  

Iowa: For the first time this year, Iowa’s overall index declined, but it remained at a strong level of 69.3 in June, down from May’s 70. The index included new orders at 77.7, production or sales at 70.2, delivery lead time at 54.8, employment at 70.5, and inventories at 73.3. “Over the past 12 months, Iowa durable goods producers and nondurable goods manufacturers have increased employment levels by more than 3 percent, which was tops in the region. Our surveys over the past several months signal that this growth will continue over the next three to six months,” Goss said.  

Kansas: Kansas’ overall index rose to 58.6 in June from 53.1 in May. The index includes new orders at 73.6, production or sales at 70.1, delivery lead time at 47.5, employment at 62.5, and inventories at 39.2. “Both durable and nondurable goods producers are experiencing healthy growth in sales and jobs.  However, pullbacks were recorded for food processors in the state. Growth will be positive, but down from the same period of 2012,” Goss said.

Minnesota: For a seventh-straight month, Minnesota’s overall index suggested growth. The index increased to 56.2 in June from May’s 55.2. The index includes new orders at 51.9, production or sales at 55, delivery lead time at 56.8, inventories at 62, and employment at 55.6. “Minnesota’s economy has been boosted by an expanding construction sector. However even with the expansion, the building sector is well down from pre-recession levels. Pullbacks among nondurable goods manufacturers were more than offset by an expanding durable goods sector including metal manufacturers,” Goss said.

Missouri: The overall index for Missouri rose slightly in June to 54.7 from 54.6 in May. The index includes new orders at 55.6, production or sales at 61, delivery lead time at 52.2, inventories at 46.7, and employment at 58.2. “Expansions among durable goods manufacturers, including metal producers, more than offset cuts for nondurables goods manufacturers for the month,” Goss said.

Nebraska: The overall index for Nebraska declined to 51.1 in June from May’s 53.2. Goss said the stronger U.S. dollar is cutting into the growth recorded by Nebraska’s businesses. The index includes new orders at 48.1, production or sales at 52.7, delivery lead time at 52.5, inventories at 51.3, and employment at 51. “Durable goods producers in the state, including metal manufacturers and agriculture equipment producers, continue to grow at a healthy pace. Nebraska and Iowa are the only states in the region to experience very healthy growth for both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers. Even so, our surveys point to slower growth for the overall Nebraska economy in the months ahead,” Goss said.  

North Dakota: North Dakota’s overall index improved to 61 in June from May’s 55.4. The index includes new orders at 53.9, production or sales at 51.6, delivery lead time at 60.4, employment at 68.8, and inventories at 70.3. “The state’s mining industry continues to expand at a brisk pace. Companies that we survey each month that are tied to this sector are likewise growing at a healthy rate. Manufacturers and construction firms are benefiting from the North Dakota’s vigorous energy sector,” Goss said.  

Oklahoma: The overall index for Oklahoma grew to 59.6 in June from May’s 55.6. The index includes new orders at 64.2, production or sales at 65.9, delivery lead time at 53.3, inventories at 60.5, and employment at 54.2. “Growth for durable goods producers in the state more than offset weaker conditions for Oklahoma’s energy firms and for nondurable manufacturers,” Goss said.

South Dakota:  The overall index for South Dakota improved to 62.9 in June from May’s 61.7. The index includes new orders at 74.5, production or sales at 64.8, delivery lead time at 54.9, inventories at 52, and employment at 68.3. “Manufacturers in the state are adding to their employment levels as sales and new orders grow at a solid pace,” Goss said.


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