At least as far as direct, full-scale combat operations, the Iraq war is over. On the international front, Iraq is not a threat to any of its neighbors or others in the international community. The Iraqis will take years to settle their internal tensions and form a strong, viable government in that country.
Yes, some type of revolution by either Sunnis or Shiites could establish a form of dictatorship and authoritarian rule in Iraq. But, in our view, neither side has the strength to overwhelm the other decisively for now. Violence will prevail internally in Iraq for some time now. But we doubt that such violence will extend to neighboring states for years.
Iraq might be a vacuum for various ultra-national groups to attempt to infiltrate. Al-Qaida, Hamas, Hezbollah or variants of such will undoubtedly make renewed attempts to influence the course of affairs internal to Iraq and establish a haven for one group or another. How well Iraqis with a divided government can defend against such encroachment is to be determined.
For now, 50,000 American troops remain in supposed noncombat roles to train Iraqi troops. If current agreements prevail, all American troops will be out of Iraq in a little over a year.
Will America still attempt to influence Iraqi internal affairs through secret military or CIA operations? Unlikely, given the sentiments of the current administration on such matters.
What we see ahead is a struggling democratic government trying to find compromise and political solutions to its many internal disputes. It is in the best interests of the international community to give them the time and space to do so, except those extremist states that prosper only when violence continues.
Opinion
In our view: The future of Iraq
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