By Jeff Lehr

jlehr@joplinglobe.com

With 20 other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, it’s difficult to see how the presidential preferences of Missourians and Oklahomans will matter all that much in the nominating process of either major party.

But the withdrawals of John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani last week created uncertainty as to how matters may play out for either major party in the battleground state of Missouri.

The withdrawals also caused uncertainty in the Oklahoma GOP stronghold former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee may be counting on to keep his campaign alive.

So just whom Missourians and Oklahomans want to be their next president might well matter more than analysts have been projecting.

Most party leaders in Southwest Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma doubt that “Super-Duper Tuesday,” as it is being called this year, will decide matters for either Republicans or Democrats.

With three Republicans having claimed early wins and four still in the race, that party’s nominee seems unlikely to emerge by Tuesday in the opinion of John Putnam, chairman of Jasper County Republicans. “I’d be very surprised if that happens,” he said.

He said a clear Democratic favorite may be more likely to emerge. He thinks his party’s nomination process stands a good chance of going all the way to the convention.

Putnam believes being part of the Super Tuesday group has given Missouri some added importance in the past two presidential elections.

“To participate earlier, gives you a little more say,” he said. “But I don’t think the public is particularly happy with stretching the campaign season out as long as it appears it’s going to be (this year).”

Research 2000’s poll of Missourians in mid-November found Giuliani leading among Republicans, with 24 percent support, followed by 17 percent for Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson at 16 percent, John McCain, 14 percent, and Huckabee, 12 percent.

That poll is almost meaningless now with Giuliani’s withdrawal and endorsement of Sen. McCain following the Florida primary. Putnam believes that in Southwest Missouri, the most conservative part of the state, Huckabee is running much stronger than any of his opponents. Support for Giuliani in Missouri may well have dropped off before Florida, he said, with other candidates’ wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.

Putnam’s counterpart, Jasper County Democratic Chairwoman Susan DeCarlo, is not so sure her party will produce a clear winner before this summer’s convention in Denver.

The same November poll that found Giuliani in the lead among Missouri Republicans found Hillary Clinton favored by 36 percent of the state’s Democrats, compared with 21 percent for Barack Obama, and 20 percent for John Edwards.