Jasper County could add 47,804 people by 2030 w/ Missouri population trends and projections

By Wally Kennedy

wkennedy@joplinglobe.com

Brad and Melinda Gibson, with their son Ethan in tow, are looking for a place to put down roots in the Joplin area.

“We are looking for a house,” Brad Gibson said. “We’re relocating from Willow Springs, which has a population of about 2,000. I’ll be going to work at the Missouri Highway Patrol crime lab in Carthage.”

The Gibsons were shown a home in the 1900 block of East 34th Street by a real-estate agent with the Glenn Group. The owners of the house are downsizing; the Gibsons want to move up.

Buying a house in the Joplin market could prove to be a prudent investment for the Gibsons if a new population projection for Jasper County becomes reality.

The state Office of Administration recently released updated population projections for Missouri extending to 2030. Among the state’s 114 counties, Jasper County could have the 10th largest projected numeric increase.

Jasper County’s population is projected to grow by 45.7 percent, from 104,686 in 2000 to 152,490 in 2030, an increase of 47,804 people. That would be like adding a town with a population the size of Joplin’s to the county.

If the projection holds, the growth could have profound implications for the county and the area. Water, already an issue of concern, could become critical.

‘Imperative’

“By 2030, Jasper County will have 152,000 people? That sounds like more than what we projected,” said Robert Nichols, head of the Tri-State Water Resource Coalition, which believes a critical water shortage could be looming for the region in a few years.

“It tells me we need more water than we anticipated. It makes it more imperative that we look,” he said. “If those numbers are correct, the situation is a little more serious than we thought.”

The coalition a couple of years ago hired Black & Veatch, a Kansas City consulting firm, to do a study that included population projections for the area. The study projected Jasper County’s population would grow to 129,200 by 2030.

Other counties represented by the coalition also are projected to experience growth, based on the state report. Greene County, which recently joined the coalition, could have the third largest numeric increase in the state, growing from 240,391 in 2000 to 329,825 by 2030.

Members of the coalition will be traveling to Washington, D.C., on Wednesday to meet with U.S. Reps. Ike Skelton and Roy Blunt, and U.S. Sens. Claire McCaskill and Kit Bond. They also will meet with representatives of the Army Corps of Engineers. The group is hoping to fast-track the construction of an off-stream reservoir in Southwest Missouri.