WICHITA, Kan. —
A decades-long decline in population is likely to continue in Kansas, particularly in the west of the state, and four counties could have fewer than 1,000 residents by 2040, according to a study by Wichita State University’s Center for Economic Development and Business Research.
Census figures have detailed the decline for years, most recently showing that 77 of Kansas’ 105 counties lost population in the last decade. The population of 41 Kansas counties peaked in 1910 or earlier and 28 counties haven’t recorded a population increase from one census to the next since 1940, not even during the post-World War II baby boom, The Hutchinson News reported (http://bit.ly/KLlI3k ).
The center made two separate projections based on different factors. One projection considered birth and death rates and assumed that migration patterns recorded in each county from 2000 to 2010 would continue. The second approach did not factor in migration patterns and considered what would happen as the current population ages.
Historic migration patterns are important but they might not be the best predictor of the future, said Jeremy Hill, director of the center.
“In some of these communities, we’re getting down to a very small population,” Hill said. “People who want to move probably already have left. People who are there are there for one reason or another. They’re attached to the land or they’re there for work and they’ve probably already gone through the agricultural productivity (gains that reduced farm employment). They’re not likely to decline any further.”
Without migration, Wichita State projected that 37 counties — 22 in the western Kansas — would lose population. The main reason for the decline is a relatively low concentration of women of child-bearing age, Hill said.
With migration, the study projected that 83 counties, including 51 of the 54 from Reno County west to the Colorado border, would continue to lose population through 2040. In the western half of the state, only Ford, Ellis and Hamilton counties could be expected to grow.
By either method, Greeley County, which had 1,235 people in the 2010 Census, will be Kansas’ smallest county in 2040. Assuming no migration, Greeley’s population would drop nearly 10 percent to 1,113, according to the study. If migration patterns continue, it would drop nearly 64 percent, to 447 people, and be one of four Kansas counties — along with Wallace, Kiowa and Lane — with fewer than 1,000 people in 2040.
“I don’t necessarily believe that every community will go that low,” Hill said. “At some point we might be at that inflection point where it’s already at the bare minimum of people willing to move out.”
Hill said he believes some communities, even those in rural areas, could grow if U.S. manufacturing rebounds as the costs of doing business in China increase. That would prompt more manufacturing jobs to return to the Midwest because of the relatively low labor costs and the skill set of the work force, he said.
“If we look in Kansas, where?” he said. “Really it’s not going to be Wichita central city, although Wichita will continue to grow. I think there is skill-set value there. However, I think communities around major metros and some other central hubs across the state — Hutch, Hays, Great Bend, Dodge and Pittsburg are great examples — are where manufacturing will likely re-emerge.”
Local News
Study suggests continued population drop in Kansas
- Local News
-
-
Sheriff’s funds to pay for two building projects
Jasper County’s general fund budget may pay some initial costs for renovating and constructing two county buildings, but the final bill for the projects will come from law enforcement sales tax funds.
-
Pittsburg crews work to repair storm damaged Schlanger Park
City crews using heavy equipment spent Thursday cleaning up Schlanger Park after a storm tracked through Monday night.
-
No charges to be filed in Joplin shooting case
The nonfatal shooting of a 25-year-old man at a Joplin residence on May 13 has been deemed justified by authorities. Jacob B. Boykin, 21, of Joplin, shot Justin S. Johnson, 25, of Carterville, once in the chest with a small-caliber handgun at 5260 E. Sunny Acres Lane.
-
Mike Pound: DVD smells like pizza; how great is that?
Just when I think the rest of the world is passing us by, this great country does something that renews my faith in innovation. It does something that renews my faith in that can-do spirit that led Charles Lindbergh to fly nonstop across the Atlantic, thus leading to the invention of the airplane bathroom.
-
Joplin Board of Education to decide fate of East Middle School teacher
After hearing nearly 10 hours of testimony from more than a dozen witnesses and accepting more than 45 exhibits into evidence, members of the Joplin Board of Education voted to move behind closed doors Thursday night to decide whether Randy Turner, a communication arts teacher at East Middle School, will continue to teach.
-
Memorial Day travelers bemoan high gas prices
Norm Hayward and his wife, Claudia, have a couple of things going for them as they continue their increasingly expensive motor home trip around parts of the United States. For starters, the Phoenix, Ariz., couple are saving on hotel costs.
-
Cunningham Park vandalism estimated at $4,000
Vandals caused an estimated $4,000 worth of damage in Cunningham Park, draining the pool in the aquatic center of about 200,000 gallons of water and throwing some large landscaping rocks into the reflecting pond.
-
Joplin team drove through storm to get to Moore
It was a long drive in the middle of a severe thunderstorm that had earlier produced a massive tornado in Moore, Okla. With the two-year anniversary of Joplin’s deadly twister approaching on Wednesday, a team of 14 Joplin emergency workers was ready to risk the trip in order to get help to a hurting Moore.
-
Cunningham Park vandalism bill estimated at $4,000
The city estimates that vandals caused about $4,000 worth of property damage in Cunningham Park, draining the swimming pool of 200,000 gallons of water and moving some large landscaping rocks into the reflecting pond.
-
Content of book, students' access to it at issue in hearing for suspended teacher
A standing-room only crowd is present at the hearing this morning to decide the fate of suspended Joplin Middle School teacher Randy Turner, who has asked for the hearing before the board of education.
- More Local News Headlines
-
Sheriff’s funds to pay for two building projects
