The Associated Press
ST. LOUIS — Missouri might be able to avoid losing a congressional seat after the 2010 Census, but that depends on how well the count is done in the state, analysts said this week.
New population figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau show Missouri is close to the number that could mean the difference between keeping nine congressional seats and dropping down to eight. Congressional seats are reapportioned based on population after each Census.
Election Data Services told the Kansas City Star for its Thursday edition that new data indicate Missouri could have just enough people to keep the congressional seat earlier population estimates suggested it would lose.
“Earlier estimates and studies had pointed to Missouri as potentially losing a congressional seat,” said a report by the political consulting firm that specializes in redistricting. “But the new data finds the state just barely keeping the district, with anywhere from 5,000 to 14,000 people to spare.”
The Census also can affect how much federal funding states get. To make sure everyone in Missouri gets counted, a bipartisan committee is already working to create public awareness of the Census’ importance.
The Complete Count Committee appointed by Gov. Jay Nixon plans to spread the word through businesses, community groups, churches and even the state lottery.
The population estimates released Wednesday were the last before the 2010 Census, which will determine how seats in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College are apportioned beginning with the 2012 election.
With longtime U.S. Sen. Kit Bond retiring next year, “you don’t want two junior senators and a lessened congressional delegation,” said Marvin Overby, a professor of political science at the University of Missouri-Columbia.
The new Census Bureau figures show Missouri’s population is growing at a slower rate than the national average. The bureau estimates the state gained 31,000 people between July 1, 2008, and July 1, 2009. With a total population of almost 6 million people, that equates to a growth rate of 0.5 percent.
Nationally, the population grew by 0.86 percent during that time. The U.S. population is now about 307 million.
State demographer Matt Hesser said Missouri had a higher death rate and lower immigration rate than the nation as a whole. Missouri gained one person per 1,000, while the nation gained 2.8 people per 1,000.
“It’s an inability to attract people,” Hesser said. “We’re just not having as much in-migration in this state as in many Sun Belt states.”
Missouri last lost a seat after the 1980 Census, prompting a fight in the Legislature and courts over how to redraw district lines.
If Missouri loses a seat, Republicans may try to draw Democratic Reps. Lacy Clay and Russ Carnahan, both of St. Louis, into the same district. Democrats could try to combine the northwest and northeast Missouri districts of Republican Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer of St. Elizabeth and Sam Graves of Tarkio.
Even if Missouri’s congressional seats remain in place, the Legislature will have to realign district boundaries to reflect population shifts within the state.
