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September 20, 2009

Anonymous The Joplin Globe Sun Sep 20, 2009, 08:01 PM CDT

By Roger McKinney

rmckinney@joplinglobe.com

Barton County farmer Joe Meadows said he expects his corn harvest to yield between 160 and 180 bushels per acre. He said traditionally, that yield is around 140 bushels per acre.

“It looks to be a record crop here on my farm,” Meadows said.

It’s the same across other parts of the country as favorable weather has helped farmers produce what could be a huge harvest, with projections calling for 13 billion bushels. That would approach the 13.04 billion bushels harvested in 2007.

Meadows said he planted his 600 acres about six to eight weeks later than normal. He said he lost all the corn he planted in April because of heavy rain and he had to replant.

The late planting has created another problem, he said.

“Because of delayed planting, we’ve got moisture levels that are so high,” Meadows said. “It’s going to require a lot of drying on the farm with propane gas.”

Meadows also said that while prices have declined, they are still higher than they were before the ethanol boom.

“All in all, with these yields, there’s going to be some profit,” Meadows said.

Harvest improves

Gary Clark, senior director of market development for the Missouri Corn Growers Association, said in many areas of the state, the yield will be above that of last year.

“We look to have a very good corn crop across the state,” Clark said. An exception may be in Northeast Missouri, where wet weather wiped out some crops.

“The harvested acres are going to be up,” Clark said, noting that flooding along the Mississippi River that happened last year didn’t happen this year.

He said there is a slight risk that an early frost could cause some real issues with harvest.

“I look at our overall crop this year, it is better than last year,” Clark said

Jesse Medlin, manager at MFA Grain in Lamar, said it’s still early in the harvest season, but it looks positive.

“Yields look like they’re going to be very good,” Medlin said. “I don’t know that we’re going to have a record year, but we’ll have a good year.”

He said because of the late planting, he was only exaggerating slightly when he joked that the corn harvest could be continuing at Christmastime.

Medlin said predictions of a record harvest have driven prices down. The price per bushel for corn now is about $3, which is $2 lower than last year.

Clark said statewide, the price per bushel for corn is between $2.75 and $2.90.

“To me, the big factor is USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) coming out with estimates of a record harvest,” Medlin said. “I think they’re wrong. I don’t think it’s going to be nearly as large as estimates say.”

Clark said he agreed with Medlin.

“I do think that is putting a lot of pressure on the market,” Clark said.

Medlin noted the artificial drying that will be required adds to a farmer’s cost.

“The farmer’s not going to walk away with near as much money as he did a year ago,” Medlin said.

Early versus late

The Kansas Corn Growers Association in a Sept. 11 report predicted a record state corn crop of 518 million bushels. It noted that a 13 billion bushel harvest had been estimated nationwide. The average yield nationwide is an estimated 162 bushels per acre.

Dennis Elbrader, agriculture extension agent for Kansas State University Extension Service in Cherokee County, said corn that is planted early typically is best in Cherokee County. That’s not the case this year.

Elbrader said wet weather in May and June hurt corn that was planted early. Then several hot days in June prevented the corn from pollinating. Farmers who waited to plant had better results, he said.

He said the yield for the corn that was planted early has been between 80 and 110 bushels per acre.

“I do feel like we have corn that’s left to cut that’s going to yield better than that,” Elbrader said. He said he expects some yields of 120 to 130 bushels per acre. He said some acres that have been irrigated will yield 240 bushels per acre.

Elbrader said 15 years ago, only about 10,000 acres in Cherokee County were planted with corn. He said now 50,000 acres are planted with corn.

“With the current hybrids it has allowed us to plant corn and make a profit,” Elbrader said.

Erick Jessee, a corn grower in Cherokee County, Kan., said his yields are above average at 120 to 130 bushels per acre.

Jessee said he began planting in early April and continued until late May. He plants corn on 1,400 acres.

“Typically, people won’t plant late,” Jessee said. “This year, it’s a bet that paid off for us.”

The Associated Press contributed to this article.

Grocery store

Although corn is a key ingredient in countless products, from Coke to corn flakes, most of a product’s cost is tied to labor and transportation, not ingredients, said Kent Thiesse, a farm management analyst and vice president of MinnStar Bank in Lake Crystal, Minn.

“Depending on what you’re looking at on the store shelf, less than 25 percent of the cost goes back to the base product,” Thiesse said.

Ephraim Liebtag, senior economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s economics research service, agreed.

“The effect of corn changes on retail prices is pretty mild and at this point we don’t see anyone predicting a major swing in corn prices,” Liebtag said. “If there isn’t a major swing there is no major impact and the effect will be pretty negligible for the consumer.”