Will Missouri's primary make an impact?

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February 2, 2008

Anonymous The Joplin Globe Sat Feb 02, 2008, 06:18 PM CST

By Jeff Lehr

jlehr@joplinglobe.com

With 20 other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, it’s difficult to see how the presidential preferences of Missourians and Oklahomans will matter all that much in the nominating process of either major party.

But the withdrawals of John Edwards and Rudy Giuliani last week created uncertainty as to how matters may play out for either major party in the battleground state of Missouri.

The withdrawals also caused uncertainty in the Oklahoma GOP stronghold former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee may be counting on to keep his campaign alive.

So just whom Missourians and Oklahomans want to be their next president might well matter more than analysts have been projecting.

Most party leaders in Southwest Missouri and Northeast Oklahoma doubt that “Super-Duper Tuesday,” as it is being called this year, will decide matters for either Republicans or Democrats.

With three Republicans having claimed early wins and four still in the race, that party’s nominee seems unlikely to emerge by Tuesday in the opinion of John Putnam, chairman of Jasper County Republicans. “I’d be very surprised if that happens,” he said.

He said a clear Democratic favorite may be more likely to emerge. He thinks his party’s nomination process stands a good chance of going all the way to the convention.

Putnam believes being part of the Super Tuesday group has given Missouri some added importance in the past two presidential elections.

“To participate earlier, gives you a little more say,” he said. “But I don’t think the public is particularly happy with stretching the campaign season out as long as it appears it’s going to be (this year).”

Research 2000’s poll of Missourians in mid-November found Giuliani leading among Republicans, with 24 percent support, followed by 17 percent for Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson at 16 percent, John McCain, 14 percent, and Huckabee, 12 percent.

That poll is almost meaningless now with Giuliani’s withdrawal and endorsement of Sen. McCain following the Florida primary. Putnam believes that in Southwest Missouri, the most conservative part of the state, Huckabee is running much stronger than any of his opponents. Support for Giuliani in Missouri may well have dropped off before Florida, he said, with other candidates’ wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.

Putnam’s counterpart, Jasper County Democratic Chairwoman Susan DeCarlo, is not so sure her party will produce a clear winner before this summer’s convention in Denver.

The same November poll that found Giuliani in the lead among Missouri Republicans found Hillary Clinton favored by 36 percent of the state’s Democrats, compared with 21 percent for Barack Obama, and 20 percent for John Edwards.

“I think it will be closer than that, especially with Claire McCaskill and Susan Montee endorsing Obama,” DeCarlo told the Globe in an interview before Edwards had dropped out. “Although, Hillary has gotten some important endorsements, too.”

There were still seven Democrats in the race when the last poll was taken in Missouri, and it preceded by more than two months Obama’s wins in Iowa and South Carolina. How Edwards’ withdrawal may impact the Democratic primary in Missouri remains to be seen.

DeCarlo likes the field her party put up this primary season and believes it will benefit the party as long as Democrats remain willing to work for the eventual nominee no matter who wins. She said she fears some young Obama supporters could lose interest if he does not get the nomination.

DeCarlo said some of the recent tension between the Obama and Clinton camps could prove a negative for the party if it gets out of hand. She believes the media bears some responsibility for that tension.

“We don’t know that there’s not just as much tension among candidates on the Republican side,” she said. “It may just be more of a story to play up the tension between Hillary and Obama than to play up what tension there is between McCain and Huckabee.”

Independent voters may be the key to both parties’ outcomes in Missouri. Putnam said his sense of the political climate is that McCain and Obama are the two candidates who appeal most to independent voters. Of the two, Obama is the more charismatic, he said. He believes that makes independents more likely to impact the state’s Democratic primary.

Bob Ernst, chairman of Ottawa County Democrats in Oklahoma, thought there was growing support for Edwards in that state prior to his withdrawal this past week. He said Oklahoma Democrats appeared to be “looking past” the sideshow of squabbling between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, and Edwards appeared more focused on the issues.

He believes the important thing for Democrats this Tuesday will be deciding which of their candidates can run the strongest campaign next fall on the issues of the economy, health care, education and the war in Iraq, and see to it that they are nominated.

“But that’s not always what happens,” Ernst said.

He thinks Tuesday’s results could spell the end for one of the Democratic candidates, but he has no strong sense of who the winner will be.

Gerald Dyer, a Republican Party central committee member in Ottawa County, believes there will be some dropouts on the GOP side after Tuesday. In Oklahoma, he expects Huckabee and McCain to do better than Romney.

“People kind of feel a kindred for (Huckabee) because he’s a neighbor,” Dyer said.

Oklahomans also like McCain since he is a war hero, and they tend to view him as strong on military defenses, he said.

McCain’s one down side in Oklahoma could be his record on immigration issues, Dyer said. The majority of Oklahomans support the tough legislation the state recently enacted with respect to illegal aliens and may be at odds with some of McCain’s views on the issue, he said.

He believes Giuliani’s liberal side, New Yorker background and “up-and-down married life” were not playing well in Oklahoma prior to his withdrawal. But Dyer strongly doubts that Tuesday will decide matters for the Republicans.

“I think we’re going a lot further than that,” he said. “I don’t now how far though.”

In Kansas

The Democrat and Republican parties will conduct caucuses in Kansas this year. The Democrats will caucus Tuesday night, and the Republicans, Saturday morning.